Statistics
Prepayment
MGIC's Prepayment Model generates a score that is used to indicate the likelihood of impending payoff at the loan level. The scored loans are sorted, then divided into deciles (10 groups of equal size) to enable further analysis.
Prepayment speeds remain relatively slow overall, however, there are significant loan populations (the top two deciles) that are prepaying rather quickly.
Decile |
1 MO CPR |
3 MO CPR |
6 MO CPR |
12 MO CPR |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | |
| 2 | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | |
| 3 | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.7% | |
| 4 | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.5% | |
| 5 | 11.4% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 13.8% | |
| 6 | 12.5% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 15.2% | |
| 7 | 14.1% | 14.6% | 15.7% | 16.8% | |
| 8 | 16.5% | 16.7% | 17.6% | 19.1% | |
| 9 | 20.4% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 22.1% | |
| 10 | 30.3% | 27.3% | 27.6% | 30.2% | |
| TOTAL | 15.5% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 17.1% | |
Data derived from Lender Landscape® |
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These statistics above represent all loans in Lender Landscape® for the indicated time intervals, each ending 5/31/07.
Recapture
Recaptures involve the measurement of retained customers. Whenever a new loan is made to the same customer who has recently paid off an existing loan (either purchase or refinance transactions), we count the new loan as being "recaptured." The likelihood that a recaptured mortgagor will opt for same loan product as their previous loan varies greatly depending on the type of product, and as well as other marketplace considerations. In the most recent 3-month period (loans paid off and recaptured between 3/1/07 and 5/31/07), we looked at these percentages for some of the most popular groups of loan products:
Delinquency
The chart below shows the markets (min. of 1000 active loans) having the lowest rates of severely delinquent loans as of the end of May.
Product |
Lowest Severe Delinquency rates as of 4/30/2007 | ||||
| Metropolitan Area | % of UPB 90+dpd | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
FLAGSTAFF, AZ-UT | 0.13% |
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2 |
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA | 0.16% |
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3 |
CORVALLIS, OR | 0.18% |
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4 |
IOWA CITY, IA | 0.31% |
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5 |
BISMARCK, ND | 0.35% |
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6 |
HONOLULU, HI | 0.38% |
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7 |
BREMERTON, WA | 0.40% |
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8 |
SEATTLE-EVERETT, WA | 0.41% |
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9 |
NORFOLK-VA BEACH-NEWPORT NEWS, VA | 0.43% |
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10 |
LAWRENCE, KS | 0.43% |
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Data derived from Lender Landscape® |
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